Putin is desperately trying to prevent a Russian/Armenia breakup through influence operations and political manipulation. On June 9, 2025, The Moscow Times reported that Armenia is rapidly abandoning its decades-long alliance with Russia after Moscow’s failure to protect against Azerbaijani attacks, with Prime Minister Pashinyan suspending CSTO participation while Putin deputy Sergei Kiriyenko leads efforts to regain influence through propaganda and Kremlin-approved opposition figures. The article begins:
For decades, Armenia was one of Russia’s most reliable post-Soviet allies — a small but loyal partner nestled in the volatile South Caucasus. But that marriage of convenience is now rapidly unraveling. Today, Yerevan is no longer whispering discontent. It is shouting it from the rooftops. And Moscow? It is scrambling to salvage the remains of its diminishing influence with soft power schemes and desperate political maneuvers.
Key Points
- Armenian trust in Russia plummeted from 93% in 2019 to just 31% in 2024 after Moscow failed to intervene during Azerbaijani attacks and Nagorno-Karabakh’s capture.
- Putin appointed Sergei Kiriyenko to lead “informational work” and groom Kremlin-approved opposition figures ahead of Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections.
- Armenia suspended CSTO participation, welcomed EU civilian border missions, and launched strategic dialogue with the US focused on democratic reforms and security cooperation.
- Russian sources admit there is “no one to speak for Russia” in Armenia except aging ex-presidents tainted by corruption, while pro-Russian voices lose credibility.
Russia & Armenia- A Shifting Landscape of Influence:
Armenia’s relationship with Russia is undergoing a dramatic transformation as US intelligence reports on Russian influence confirm that Moscow is losing ground in Armenia while consolidating its position in Georgia. The deterioration of Russian-Armenian ties accelerated after Armenia announced its intention to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), triggering a Russian information campaign targeting Armenia’s pro-Western leadership and democratic reforms. As the Kremlin intensifies coordinated digital campaigns and economic pressure, these efforts have largely failed to reverse Armenian public opinion, which has shifted decisively toward Western integration. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains a focal point for multi-country influence operations, with Russia striving to maintain its foothold even as Armenia methodically reduces its institutional dependencies on Moscow.
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