Dutch Far-Right Election Setback: Wilders Loses Ground

The Dutch far-right elec­tion set­back deliv­ered a sharp blow to Geert Wilders as his anti-Islam Free­dom Par­ty lost over a quar­ter of its par­lia­men­tary seats. On 30 Octo­ber 2025, Reuters report­ed that cen­trist D66 leader Rob Jet­ten expressed con­fi­dence in form­ing a gov­ern­ment after his par­ty tied with Wilders’ PVV at 26 seats each, with main­stream par­ties rul­ing out coali­tion with the far-right leader after he brought down the last gov­ern­ment. The arti­cle begins:

Dutch cen­trist leader Rob Jet­ten said he was “very con­fi­dent” of being able to put togeth­er a gov­ern­ment after his par­ty’s strong show­ing in par­lia­men­tary elec­tions that saw Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam Free­dom Par­ty lose ground. With most of the votes count­ed, Jet­ten’s D66 and Wilders’ PVV were neck-and-neck on Thurs­day, with both pro­ject­ed to take 26 seats in the 150-seat low­er house of par­lia­ment. That was a sharp drop for Wilders’ par­ty, which lost over a quar­ter of its seats in two years, stem­ming from a poor per­for­mance in its first attempt at gov­ern­ment and grow­ing com­pe­ti­tion on the right. How­ev­er, the fac­tors which led to the PVV’s decline were not expect­ed to her­ald a wider eclipse of the pop­ulist right in Europe, where nation­al­ist par­ties lead in the polls in France, Ger­many and Britain.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/dutch-far-right-loses-ground-opening-door-centrist-coalition-talks-2025–10-30/

Key Points

• The D66 par­ty tripled its seat count with an upbeat cam­paign, pol­ished mes­sag­ing, and a surge in adver­tis­ing spend­ing, while Wilders’ PVV lost over a quar­ter of its seats stem­ming from poor gov­ern­ment performance.
• Major main­stream par­ties have ruled out gov­ern­ing with Wilders after he brought down the last coali­tion, leav­ing him with no viable path to a major­i­ty despite tying for first place with 26 seats.
• Rob Jet­ten, at 38 years old, would become the Nether­lands’ youngest and first open­ly gay prime min­is­ter if he suc­cess­ful­ly com­pletes coali­tion talks in the frag­ment­ed 150-seat parliament.
• The elec­tion was seen as a test of whether the far right can expand its reach or has peaked in parts of Europe, with the out­come sug­gest­ing there are lim­its to its appeal while remain­ing an endur­ing part of the polit­i­cal landscape.

National Conservatism in the Netherlands: PVV and FVD’s Ties to Orbán and Russia

The Glob­al Nation­al Con­ser­v­a­tive Alliance (GNCA) in the Nether­lands man­i­fests through Geert Wilders’ Par­ty for Free­dom (PVV) and Thier­ry Baude­t’s Forum voor Democ­ra­tie (FvD). Both par­ties have aligned with Vik­tor Orbán’s Patri­ots for Europe alliance in the Euro­pean Par­lia­ment, cement­ing their posi­tion with­in the transna­tion­al nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive net­work. Wilders’ PVV achieved elec­toral vic­to­ry in Novem­ber 2023, though the coali­tion gov­ern­ment col­lapsed in June 2025 over asy­lum pol­i­cy dis­putes when part­ners refused his “ten-point plan” on asy­lum. Wilders has cul­ti­vat­ed sub­stan­tial Hun­gar­i­an ties, receiv­ing the Order of Mer­it in 2022 and main­tain­ing con­tact with Orbán since 1995. His wife is Hun­gar­i­an, two cab­i­net min­is­ters share Hun­gar­i­an descent, and VSquare.org reports that Orbán’s elite body­guards pro­tect Wilders dur­ing Hun­gar­i­an visits.

The FvD rep­re­sents a more con­spir­a­to­r­i­al wing of Dutch nation­al con­ser­vatism. Baudet has expressed hope that Rus­sia would win the war in Ukraine, call­ing Putin “fan­tas­tic” and “one of the most hope­ful things in the world today.” John Laugh­land, the FvD’s par­ty ide­o­logue, attend­ed a Krem­lin-linked con­fer­ence in Sochi where he met with for­mer Russ­ian Pres­i­dent Medvedev and Voice of Europe influ­ence scan­dal fig­ures. Laugh­land pre­vi­ous­ly worked as research direc­tor at a Russ­ian-fund­ed Paris insti­tute between 2008 and 2018. Don­ald Trump and Tuck­er Carl­son exploit­ed Dutch farmer protests to advance con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries, with Baudet spread­ing the “Great Reset” nar­ra­tive dur­ing demon­stra­tions. He appeared on Steve Ban­non’s pod­cast pro­mot­ing these the­o­ries, illus­trat­ing transat­lantic nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive net­work­ing. Dutch inves­tiga­tive jour­nal­ism revealed Baude­t’s con­tact with pro-Krem­lin Ukrain­ian Vladimir Kornilov, with leaked mes­sages show­ing dis­cus­sions about finan­cial arrangements.

The Dutch secu­ri­ty ser­vice AIVD warned Baudet in 2020 that his par­ty was tar­get­ed by Russ­ian intel­li­gence, alert­ing him to a woman with FvD con­nec­tions who main­tained Russ­ian embassy ties. Baudet took no action and failed to inform par­ty offi­cials. Research from the Clin­gen­dael Insti­tute demon­strates that Dutch far-right sup­port­ers show sig­nif­i­cant sup­port for Rus­sia coop­er­a­tion, with Dutch extrem­ists par­tic­u­lar­ly sus­cep­ti­ble to covert Russ­ian influ­ence operations.

Exter­nal References:
— Hun­gary con­nec­tion: Orbán’s elite body­guards pro­tect Geert Wilders (VSquare)
— Thier­ry Baudet was warned about Russ­ian influ­ence in 2020 (DutchNews.nl)
— Polar­i­sa­tion of atti­tudes towards Rus­sia in the Nether­lands (Clin­gen­dael Institute)

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