US Intelligence Says Russian Influence Gaining Ground in Georgia, Losing in Armenia

US intel­li­gence indi­cates con­trast­ing region­al trends as Moscow’s influ­ence oper­a­tions yield mixed results across the South Cau­ca­sus. On 28 May 2025, JAM­news report­ed that the US Defense Intel­li­gence Agen­cy’s annu­al threat assess­ment found Rus­sia mak­ing progress in bring­ing Geor­gia back into its sphere of influ­ence while simul­ta­ne­ous­ly los­ing ground in Arme­nia. The report high­lights how the rul­ing Geor­gian Dream par­ty cre­at­ed favor­able con­di­tions for Russ­ian influ­ence fol­low­ing the Octo­ber 2024 par­lia­men­tary elections.

The arti­cle begins:

Moscow is almost cer­tain­ly seek­ing to bring Geor­gia back into its sphere of influ­ence and has already made progress through inter­nal polit­i­cal devel­op­ments in the coun­try, accord­ing to the annu­al report of the US Defense Intel­li­gence Agency (DIA), pre­sent­ed to Con­gress. Accord­ing to DIA ana­lysts, fol­low­ing the par­lia­men­tary elec­tions of Octo­ber 2024, the rul­ing Geor­gian Dream par­ty cre­at­ed favourable con­di­tions for the growth of Russ­ian influ­ence. This con­clu­sion comes against the back­drop of ongo­ing mass protests in Tbil­isi and accu­sa­tions that the coun­try is drift­ing away from its path toward Euro­pean inte­gra­tion. Notably, the report makes almost no men­tion of Azer­bai­jan, while Arme­nia fea­tures promi­nent­ly as an exam­ple of dete­ri­o­rat­ing ties with Moscow. Accord­ing to the DIA, Russ­ian-Armen­ian rela­tions “wors­ened over the past year,” par­tic­u­lar­ly after Arme­nia announced its poten­tial with­draw­al from the Col­lec­tive Secu­ri­ty Treaty Orga­ni­za­tion (CSTO), prompt­ing Rus­sia to launch an infor­ma­tion cam­paign against Arme­ni­a’s demo­c­ra­t­ic path and pro-West­ern leadership.

Read more: https://jam-news.net/russia-steps-up-pressure-in-georgia-loses-influence-in-armenia-us-intelligence-report/

Key Points

• US Defense Intel­li­gence Agency iden­ti­fies Geor­gia as expe­ri­enc­ing “soft annex­a­tion of influ­ence” fol­low­ing Geor­gian Dream par­ty’s elec­toral vic­to­ry in Octo­ber 2024
• Russ­ian-Armen­ian rela­tions dete­ri­o­rat­ed sig­nif­i­cant­ly after Arme­nia announced poten­tial with­draw­al from the Col­lec­tive Secu­ri­ty Treaty Orga­ni­za­tion, trig­ger­ing Moscow’s infor­ma­tion cam­paign response
• The intel­li­gence report notably omits detailed analy­sis of Azer­bai­jan, sug­gest­ing either region­al sta­bil­i­ty or lack of trans­paren­cy in cur­rent developments
• US Sec­re­tary of State Mar­co Rubio pre­vi­ous­ly labeled the Geor­gian Dream-led gov­ern­ment an “anti-Amer­i­can force” and threat­ened action against the rul­ing party

Georgia & Armenia: Russian Influence Operations and Regional Power Dynamics

Russ­ian influ­ence in Geor­gia is char­ac­ter­ized by a com­bi­na­tion of dig­i­tal pro­pa­gan­da, elec­tion inter­fer­ence, and strate­gic polit­i­cal alliances, notably through the Geor­gian Dream party’s align­ment with Moscow, which has facil­i­tat­ed Krem­lin efforts to under­mine West­ern insti­tu­tions and demo­c­ra­t­ic process­es. The 2024 par­lia­men­tary elec­tions in Geor­gia were notably affect­ed by Russ­ian elec­tion inter­fer­ence tac­tics, involv­ing coor­di­nat­ed dis­in­for­ma­tion cam­paigns and attempts to desta­bi­lize pro-West­ern polit­i­cal forces.

While Geor­gia expe­ri­ences sig­nif­i­cant Russ­ian pres­sure through polit­i­cal and infor­ma­tion­al means, Arme­nia faces a dif­fer­ent set of chal­lenges, with Moscow exert­ing influ­ence pri­mar­i­ly via mil­i­tary, geopo­lit­i­cal, and cul­tur­al lever­age, espe­cial­ly as Armenia’s gov­ern­ment pur­sues clos­er ties with the Euro­pean Union and the Unit­ed States. The com­plex inter­play between these coun­tries is fur­ther com­pli­cat­ed by Georgia’s role in region­al dynam­ics, where its polit­i­cal deci­sions some­times align with Russ­ian inter­ests, indi­rect­ly affect­ing Armenia’s posi­tion in the South Caucasus.

US intel­li­gence high­lights that the Geor­gian Dream party’s poli­cies have enabled increased Russ­ian influ­ence, under­scor­ing Russia’s broad­er strat­e­gy to main­tain dom­i­nance in the region by exploit­ing polit­i­cal divi­sions, eco­nom­ic depen­den­cies, and infor­ma­tion warfare.

Exter­nal References:

1. Rus­sia Seeks to Reassert Influ­ence in South Caucasus

2. Rus­sia is increas­ing its influ­ence in Geor­gia and Armenia

3. Sub­ver­sion and Elec­toral Inter­fer­ence: Rus­sia and Arme­ni­a’s 2026 Elections

Disclaimer

The Glob­al Influ­ence Oper­a­tions Report (GIOR) employs AI through­out the post­ing process, includ­ing gen­er­at­ing sum­maries of news items, the intro­duc­tion, key points, and often the “con­text” sec­tion. We rec­om­mend ver­i­fy­ing all infor­ma­tion before use. Addi­tion­al­ly, images are AI-gen­er­at­ed and intend­ed sole­ly for illus­tra­tive pur­pos­es. While they rep­re­sent the events or indi­vid­u­als dis­cussed, they should not be inter­pret­ed as real-world photography.