Russian Disinformation in Baltics Aimed At Increasing Distrust of Governments, Perceived Imminence of Military Actions in Region, Study Finds

Pub­lic Integri­ty, the Jour­nal of the Amer­i­can Soci­ety for Pub­lic Admin­is­tra­tion, has recent­ly pub­lished a quan­ti­ta­tive study exam­in­ing Russ­ian dis­in­for­ma­tion effects in the Baltics. Accord­ing to the study’s abstract:

July 12, 2022 The present study embarks on a sci­en­tif­ic quan­ti­ta­tive assess­ment of Russ­ian dis­in­for­ma­tion effects in Baltic States. A cross-sec­tion­al sur­vey and the par­tial least squares struc­tur­al equa­tion mod­el­ing were employed as research tools. It was found that Russ­ian dis­in­for­ma­tion is aimed at increas­ing the per­ceived dis­trust of gov­ern­ments, per­ceived lack of career pos­si­bil­i­ties, per­ceived lack of jus­tice, and per­ceived immi­nence of mil­i­tary actions in the region. These are also echoed in the decrease in cit­i­zens’ incen­tives for invest­ment activ­i­ties. The largest of the Baltic States, Lithua­nia, served as an empir­i­cal basis for the research.

Read the full study here.

The Glob­al Influ­ence Oper­a­tions Report has exten­sive­ly report­ed on Russ­ian dis­in­for­ma­tion and influ­ence oper­a­tions in Esto­nia, Latvia, and Lithua­nia, includ­ing how Russ­ian media legit­imizes and ampli­fies fringe Baltic dis­in­for­ma­tion out­lets, how it seeks to impose a twist­ed inter­pre­ta­tion of Baltic his­to­ry, or how it accus­es Baltic gov­ern­ments of “Rus­so­pho­bia.” We have also iden­ti­fied some of the most impor­tant Russ­ian influ­ence orga­ni­za­tions in the Baltics and report­ed on Estonia’s and Lithuania’s counter-mea­sures to Russ­ian dis­in­for­ma­tion, from cook­ing class­es to media lit­er­a­cy projects. We have also report­ed on sev­er­al stud­ies exam­in­ing sus­cep­ti­bil­i­ty to Russ­ian pro­pa­gan­da, which found :

• Ger­man-speak­ing vaxxers and right-wing pop­ulists are more sus­cep­ti­ble to Russ­ian propaganda.

• Ukraini­ans with more vital ana­lyt­ic rea­son­ing skills are bet­ter insu­lat­ed against Russ­ian propaganda.

• Russ­ian pro­pa­gan­da is par­tic­u­lar­ly suc­cess­ful in Cen­tral and West­ern Balkan coun­tries because of its post-com­mu­nist lega­cy, pan-Slav­ism, the role of the Ortho­dox Church, and a deeply embed­ded cul­ture of corruption.

• Ser­bia is the East­ern Euro­pean coun­try most sus­cep­ti­ble to Russ­ian and Chi­nese influence.