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GIOR AnalysisNovember 28 2024, 7:57 am

The National Conservative Roots of Romania’s New Political Star

In recent years, Roma­nia has wit­nessed a sig­nif­i­cant shift in its polit­i­cal land­scape, marked by the rise of nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive forces that have fun­da­men­tal­ly altered the country’s elec­toral dynam­ics. This trans­for­ma­tion is par­tic­u­lar­ly evi­dent in two inter­con­nect­ed devel­op­ments: the sur­pris­ing emer­gence of the Alliance for the Union of Roma­ni­ans (AUR) in the 2020 leg­isla­tive elec­tions and the recent suc­cess of Călin Georges­cu in the 2024 pres­i­den­tial race.

The foun­da­tions for this polit­i­cal trans­for­ma­tion were laid dur­ing the 2020 elec­tions, when AUR, seem­ing­ly out of nowhere, secured over 9% of the vote. The par­ty built its plat­form on four cen­tral pil­lars: “fam­i­ly, father­land, faith, and free­dom,” posi­tion­ing itself as the most con­ser­v­a­tive force in Roman­ian pol­i­tics. How­ev­er, polit­i­cal ana­lyst Ali­na Mungiu-Pip­pi­di offers a con­trast­ing inter­pre­ta­tion of these prin­ci­ples, argu­ing that AUR’s plat­form is bet­ter described as pro­mot­ing “anti-sci­ence, Chris­t­ian fun­da­men­tal­ism, and sov­er­eignism.” This polit­i­cal for­mu­la proved par­tic­u­lar­ly effec­tive in a coun­try that had pre­vi­ous­ly lacked a major nation­al­ist-pop­ulist force fol­low­ing the decline of the Greater Roma­nia Par­ty (PRM) in the ear­ly 2010s.

This gap between AUR’s self-pre­sen­ta­tion and its per­ceived under­ly­ing val­ues high­lights how it has cap­i­tal­ized on vot­er dis­sat­is­fac­tion with tra­di­tion­al par­ties. AUR appeals to those dis­il­lu­sioned by Romania’s rul­ing coali­tions and look­ing for a polit­i­cal force that speaks to their frus­tra­tions. The par­ty has also gained strong sup­port from the Roman­ian dias­po­ra. Mungiu-Pip­pi­di notes that the dias­po­ra, par­tic­u­lar­ly those work­ing sea­son­al­ly in Europe, viewed AUR as a “rad­i­cal ‘F… you’ alter­na­tive to the exist­ing polit­i­cal sys­tem.” Addi­tion­al­ly, the party’s anti-vac­cine stance dur­ing the COVID-19 pan­dem­ic, bol­stered by sup­port from the Ortho­dox Church, fur­ther fueled its growth.

AUR’s appeal tapped into a latent appetite among Roman­ian vot­ers for a par­ty that could chal­lenge the per­ceived fail­ures of main­stream pol­i­tics. Its focus on nation­al­ism, cul­tur­al iden­ti­ty, and sov­er­eign­ty mir­rored broad­er region­al trends in Cen­tral and East­ern Europe, where nation­al­ist and con­ser­v­a­tive move­ments have gained promi­nence. Yet, Mungiu-Pippidi’s cri­tique of AUR as a vehi­cle for rad­i­cal pop­ulism sug­gests that the party’s grow­ing influ­ence may also fuel divi­sive pol­i­tics in the long term.

Enter Călin Georges­cu, who would take this polit­i­cal for­mu­la even fur­ther. Ini­tial­ly asso­ci­at­ed with AUR between 2020 and 2022, Georges­cu emerged as an inde­pen­dent pres­i­den­tial can­di­date who man­aged to secure the high­est num­ber of votes in the first round of the 2024 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion. His cam­paign suc­cess­ful­ly built upon many of the nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive themes that AUR had pre­vi­ous­ly estab­lished: strength­en­ing nation­al defense capa­bil­i­ties, sup­port­ing domes­tic agri­cul­ture, reduc­ing import depen­den­cy, and pro­mot­ing nation­al sovereignty.

How­ev­er, Georgescu’s rise also reveals the poten­tial volatil­i­ty with­in Romania’s nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive move­ment. While shar­ing many of AUR’s fun­da­men­tal posi­tions on sov­er­eign­ty and nation­al iden­ti­ty, Georgescu’s views proved too extreme even for the par­ty, lead­ing to their sep­a­ra­tion in 2022. His embrace of con­spir­a­cy the­o­ries, his admi­ra­tion for his country’s WWII fas­cist lead­ers, and his out­spo­ken praise for Vladimir Putin illus­trate how quick­ly nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive pol­i­tics can evolve beyond tra­di­tion­al boundaries.

Georgescu’s con­tro­ver­sial pro-Russ­ian stance has raised sig­nif­i­cant alarms. His state­ments advo­cat­ing for Roma­nia to embrace “Russ­ian wis­dom” and his dis­missal of Ukraine as “an invent­ed state” led many to accuse him of serv­ing as a rep­re­sen­ta­tive of Russ­ian inter­ests. These posi­tions high­light broad­er con­cerns about the poten­tial for for­eign influ­ence with­in Romania’s nation­al con­ser­v­a­tive move­ment, par­tic­u­lar­ly giv­en the ongo­ing con­flict in Ukraine and Romania’s strate­gic role in NATO.

A par­tic­u­lar­ly con­cern­ing aspect of Georgescu’s rise is the role of social media, espe­cial­ly Tik­Tok, in his cam­paign. His suc­cess relied heav­i­ly on an unprece­dent­ed dig­i­tal strat­e­gy that replaced tra­di­tion­al cam­paign activ­i­ties with algo­rith­mi­cal­ly boost­ed con­tent. For­mer Pres­i­dent Tra­ian Băs­es­cu labeled him the “robot can­di­date,” a term that reflects the scale and sophis­ti­ca­tion of his social media strat­e­gy. Roman­ian author­i­ties and EU offi­cials have ques­tioned whether TikTok’s algo­rithms were delib­er­ate­ly mod­i­fied to pro­mote Georgescu’s con­tent, rais­ing alarms about for­eign inter­fer­ence and the vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties of demo­c­ra­t­ic insti­tu­tions in the face of advanced dig­i­tal propaganda.

The con­ver­gence of Georgescu’s pro-Russ­ian stance and his Tik­Tok suc­cess rais­es ques­tions about poten­tial coor­di­na­tion between dif­fer­ent chan­nels of influ­ence. While direct links remain unproven, the align­ment between Georgescu’s pro-Russ­ian mes­sag­ing and the unprece­dent­ed algo­rith­mic pro­mo­tion of his con­tent on the Chi­nese-owned plat­form has caught the atten­tion of Roman­ian author­i­ties and EU offi­cials. As Dragoș Pîs­laru notes in his analy­sis, there appears to be “a con­nec­tion between these anti-sys­tem can­di­dates in Europe, the Unit­ed States, and Chi­na,” with social media plat­forms serv­ing as cru­cial vec­tors for spread­ing these messages.

AUR’s pop­u­lar­i­ty has also sparked broad­er dis­cus­sions about its poten­tial role in a future gov­ern­ment coali­tion. The party’s grow­ing share of sup­port—20.2% in recent polls—could posi­tion it as a king­mak­er in 2024’s par­lia­men­tary elec­tions. Whether it would enter a coali­tion with the Social Democ­rats or the Lib­er­als remains uncer­tain, but the nor­mal­iza­tion of far-right par­ties across Europe sug­gests that such a sce­nario can­not be dismissed.

The elec­toral suc­cess of both AUR and Georges­cu sug­gests that nation­al con­ser­vatism has found fer­tile ground in Roma­nia. Their rise reflects broad­er region­al trends, but Romania’s case is unique in how rapid­ly these forces have emerged from rel­a­tive obscu­ri­ty to main­stream polit­i­cal influ­ence. This trans­for­ma­tion is par­tic­u­lar­ly note­wor­thy because it has reshaped Roman­ian polit­i­cal dis­course. Tra­di­tion­al left-right eco­nom­ic divi­sions have become less rel­e­vant, replaced by debates over nation­al sov­er­eign­ty, cul­tur­al iden­ti­ty, and Romania’s place in the inter­na­tion­al order. This mir­rors devel­op­ments across Europe but has tak­en on dis­tinct­ly Roman­ian char­ac­ter­is­tics, influ­enced by the country’s his­tor­i­cal expe­ri­ences and cur­rent geopo­lit­i­cal position.

The rise of nation­al con­ser­vatism in Roma­nia, exem­pli­fied by AUR and Călin Georges­cu, is not an iso­lat­ed phe­nom­e­non but part of a broad­er trend reshap­ing polit­i­cal land­scapes across Europe and the globe. As nation­al­ist par­ties gain trac­tion in coun­tries like Poland, Hun­gary, Swe­den, and the Nether­lands, Romania’s devel­op­ments high­light the grow­ing appeal of move­ments that chal­lenge the sta­tus quo, pri­or­i­tize sov­er­eign­ty, and ques­tion the influ­ence of supra­na­tion­al insti­tu­tions like the EU.

The impli­ca­tions for Europe are pro­found. Romania’s posi­tion as a strate­gic EU and NATO mem­ber means that a stronger nation­al­ist move­ment could com­pli­cate col­lec­tive action on crit­i­cal issues such as secu­ri­ty, cli­mate pol­i­cy, and the rule of law. Georgescu’s pro-Russ­ian rhetoric, in par­tic­u­lar, under­scores how nation­al con­ser­vatism, if left unchecked, could open path­ways for for­eign influ­ence that under­mine Euro­pean uni­ty and resilience against adver­saries like Russia.

Glob­al­ly, Romania’s shift mir­rors sim­i­lar dynam­ics in oth­er regions where pop­ulist and nation­al­ist lead­ers have lever­aged dis­sat­is­fac­tion with glob­al­iza­tion and gov­er­nance fail­ures. The dig­i­tal strate­gies employed by fig­ures like Georges­cu also high­light the trans­for­ma­tive role of social media in shap­ing polit­i­cal dis­course, often ampli­fy­ing anti-estab­lish­ment and rad­i­cal voic­es with far-reach­ing con­se­quences for democracy.

As Roma­nia con­tin­ues on this tra­jec­to­ry, its choic­es will res­onate beyond its bor­ders. The rise of nation­al con­ser­vatism chal­lenges the lib­er­al demo­c­ra­t­ic order and offers an alter­na­tive vision—one that pri­or­i­tizes iden­ti­ty, tra­di­tion, and sov­er­eign­ty over mul­ti­lat­er­al­ism and inte­gra­tion. How Roma­nia nav­i­gates this cross­roads will be a test case for Europe and a sig­nal of the evolv­ing bal­ance of pow­er in glob­al politics.